Election Data Indicates ‘ANC (Will Not) Rule Until Jesus Returns!’

Written by: Errol Naidoo
Article Source: Family Policy Institute

The results of the 2021 Municipal Elections indicate a seismic shift in South Africa’s political landscape. For the first time in South Africa’s democracy, the governing ANC received less than 50 percent of the national vote. In fact, the once dominant ANC won majorities in only two of seven major metro’s – Manguang (Bloemfontein) and Ethekwini (Durban).

Election data also strongly suggests a growing disillusionment with larger political parties. For the first time a surprising 323 political parties or independent alliances contested the Municipal Elections. Another first was the historic low voter turnout of about 46 percent.

Just over 12 million citizens voted on Election Day. More ominously, however, 14 million registered voters did not vote. A further 13 million eligible voters did not even register to vote. This means, only 12 million of a total 39 million eligible voters cast their ballots on 1 Nov.

Many regionally-based smaller parties and independent alliances won seats in municipalities across the country, forcing the larger parties into governing coalitions. Voters appear to be losing faith in the more established parties opting to vote for independents and smaller community-based parties. This method provides voters with more direct representation.

Also for the first time, no political party won a governing majority in 66 Municipalities. The bad news for the ANC is most opposition parties refuse to form governing coalitions with them.

If this trend continues into the General Elections in 2024, the ANC could lose power. For the first time, Independents will contest the General Elections – along with political parties – as a result of a recent Constitutional Court ruling that will transform SA’s Electoral System.

However, Municipal Elections results do not tell the full story. That’s because each voter gets 2 ballot papers, one ward (W) and the other proportional representation (PR). So, voters vote twice, one for the Ward candidate and the other PR vote for the political party.

I created the graph below to provide an accurate reflection of how many individual voters voted for each political party in the past three Municipal Elections – 2011, 2016 and 2021. For example, the total 2021 voter turnout was 12, 065,385 but total votes cast were 23,882,095.

To determine the actual number of voters for each party, I highlight in bold either the (W) or (PR) votes – whichever is greater. I compare this with actual voters in the two previous elections to determine whether political parties are growing or declining in real terms.

For this exercise I included the top four parties by votes received and four smaller parties for comparison. I also include independents. I reiterate, many region-based smaller parties received impressive support in this election indicating a shift away from established parties.

The figures in bold indicate how many actual individual voters voted for each party

What the above graph does illustrate is that the ANC can lose governing power in 2024. If    the 2021 voting trends continue into 2024, South Africa could have a multi-party governing coalition that may not include the ANC or EFF. This scenario will strengthen our democracy.

Scores of senior ANC and EFF officials face multiple investigations for tender fraud, corruption, theft, money laundering, racketeering, assault and defeating the ends of justice.

The release of the Zondo Commission Report next year will also compound ANC’s woes.

Those implicated will face trial in open court during 2022/2023 exposing the true extent of their criminality – further eroding the public’s trust in the political party’s they represent

This is a game-changer. Anti-family parties like the ANC and DA are losing significant support. The EFF has reached its ceiling and will falter when its leaders stand trial.

Smaller parties like the FF+ and Patriotic Alliance show impressive growth. The ACDP has shown marginal growth this election. New parties like Action-SA and others will tilt election  outcomes toward multi-party democracy in which no single political party is dominant.

ANC leaders repeatedly declared, “The ANC will rule until Jesus returns.” To be sure, Jesus will return triumphant. But by then, the ANC will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Keep praying for South Africa. God hears and answers prayer. Change is coming.

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Date published: 09/11/2021
Feature image: Artwork adapted from unsplash.com

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